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1998 House · CO-2

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 53%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.88% · Republican 47.45%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.880 − 47.445 = 2.435
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (2.435) = -19.434
  4. Absolute miss = |-19.434| = 19.434

The poll overstated the Republican by 19.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64399, race ID 1918 (538 database).