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1998 House · CA-24

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 34%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.31% · Republican 38.49%

D+18.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 34 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.310 − 38.488 = 18.822
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (18.822) = -5.823
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.823| = 5.823

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64398, race ID 1888 (538 database).