2006 House · CT-4
University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 43%
even
The certified result
Democrat 47.58% · Republican 50.96%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 47.579 − 50.957 = -3.378
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.378) = 3.378
- Absolute miss = |3.378| = 3.378
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64385, race ID 3673 (538 database).