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2004 House · CT-2

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.77% · Republican 54.19%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.766 − 54.192 = -8.426
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-8.426) = -0.573
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.573| = 0.573

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64384, race ID 3234 (538 database).