Skip to content

2002 House · CT-2

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 624 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 47%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.91% · Republican 54.09%

R+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 47 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.910 − 54.090 = -8.180
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-8.180) = -3.820
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.820| = 3.820

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64382, race ID 2798 (538 database).