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2012 House · FL-18

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 752 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.28% · Republican 49.70%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.280 − 49.704 = 0.576
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.576) = -1.576
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.576| = 1.576

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64370, race ID 5000 (538 database).