2006 House · PA-4
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 46%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.89% · Republican 48.03%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 51.891 − 48.035 = 3.856
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (3.856) = -7.856
- Absolute miss = |-7.856| = 7.856
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64367, race ID 3924 (538 database).