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2009 House · CA-10

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2009-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 581 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.85% · Republican 42.83%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.848 − 42.832 = 10.016
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.016) = -0.016
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.016| = 0.016

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64366, race ID 1801 (538 database).