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2008 House · VA-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 640 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.09% · Republican 49.86%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.086 − 49.857 = 0.229
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.229) = -3.229
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.229| = 3.229

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64365, race ID 4433 (538 database).