2008 House · MN-3
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 647 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 46%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.85% · Republican 48.48%
R+7.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 40.852 − 48.477 = -7.625
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.625) = 2.625
- Absolute miss = |2.625| = 2.625
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64363, race ID 4241 (538 database).