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2008 House · KS-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 635 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 42%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.44% · Republican 39.66%

D+16.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.440 − 39.656 = 16.784
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (16.784) = -5.785
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.785| = 5.785

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64341, race ID 4189 (538 database).