Skip to content

2008 House · GA-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 634 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.24% · Republican 42.76%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.244 − 42.756 = 14.488
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (14.488) = -10.487
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.487| = 10.487

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64340, race ID 4144 (538 database).