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2008 House · KY-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 559 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.43% · Republican 52.57%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.427 − 52.573 = -5.146
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-5.146) = -3.854
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.854| = 3.854

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64332, race ID 4192 (538 database).