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2006 House · NM-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 688 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.80% · Republican 50.20%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.796 − 50.204 = -0.408
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.408) = 2.408
  4. Absolute miss = |2.408| = 2.408

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64325, race ID 3847 (538 database).