Skip to content

2006 House · KY-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 510 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.38% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.377 − 51.690 = -8.313
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-8.313) = 2.313
  4. Absolute miss = |2.313| = 2.313

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64324, race ID 3758 (538 database).