2006 House · MN-6
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 698 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 49%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.07% · Republican 50.05%
R+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 42.074 − 50.051 = -7.977
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-7.977) = 0.976
- Absolute miss = |0.976| = 0.976
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64322, race ID 3809 (538 database).