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2006 House · FL-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 568 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.08% · Republican 55.91%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.078 − 55.913 = -11.835
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-11.835) = -0.165
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.165| = 0.165

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64321, race ID 3684 (538 database).