Skip to content

2006 House · CA-50

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 550 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 55%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.50% · Republican 53.14%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.499 − 53.137 = -9.638
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-9.638) = -4.362
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.362| = 4.362

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64319, race ID 3659 (538 database).