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2006 House · AZ-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 643 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 46.44%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 46.441 = 3.971
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.971) = -1.972
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.972| = 1.972

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64308, race ID 3602 (538 database).