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2006 House · CO-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 611 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 38%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.59% · Republican 36.55%

D+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 38 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.586 − 36.547 = 25.039
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (25.039) = -6.039
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.039| = 6.039

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64306, race ID 3665 (538 database).