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2006 House · MN-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 738 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.07% · Republican 50.05%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.074 − 50.051 = -7.977
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-7.977) = 1.976
  4. Absolute miss = |1.976| = 1.976

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64303, race ID 3809 (538 database).