2006 House · KY-4
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 466 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 46%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.38% · Republican 51.69%
R+8.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 43.377 − 51.690 = -8.313
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-8.313) = 6.313
- Absolute miss = |6.313| = 6.313
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64302, race ID 3758 (538 database).