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2006 House · CA-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 581 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.87% · Republican 49.05%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.866 − 49.051 = -3.185
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-3.185) = -6.815
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.815| = 6.815

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64300, race ID 3613 (538 database).