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2006 House · OH-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 570 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 64% · Republican 32%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.08% · Republican 37.92%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 64 − 32 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.079 − 37.921 = 24.158
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (24.158) = 7.842
  4. Absolute miss = |7.842| = 7.842

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64299, race ID 3898 (538 database).