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2006 House · NY-26

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 419 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.02% · Republican 42.04%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.017 − 42.041 = -4.024
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-4.024) = 1.024
  4. Absolute miss = |1.024| = 1.024

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64298, race ID 3875 (538 database).