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2006 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 536 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 48.18%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.623 − 48.176 = 2.447
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.447) = -1.447
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.447| = 1.447

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64297, race ID 3757 (538 database).