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2006 House · FL-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 425 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 57%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.08% · Republican 55.91%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.078 − 55.913 = -11.835
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-11.835) = -9.165
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.165| = 9.165

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64296, race ID 3684 (538 database).