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2006 House · CO-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 543 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 51%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.35% · Republican 59.62%

R+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 51 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.352 − 59.618 = -19.266
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-19.266) = 6.266
  4. Absolute miss = |6.266| = 6.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64295, race ID 3667 (538 database).