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2004 House · AR-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 583 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 36%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.17% · Republican 41.83%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 36 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.169 − 41.829 = 16.340
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (16.340) = 7.660
  4. Absolute miss = |7.660| = 7.660

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64294, race ID 3170 (538 database).