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2004 House · KY-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-02-14 (3 days before the election) · 517 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.16% · Republican 42.91%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.158 − 42.907 = 12.251
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (12.251) = -4.251
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.251| = 4.251

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64284, race ID 1826 (538 database).