Skip to content

2002 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 707 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.39% · Republican 51.61%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.389 − 51.611 = -3.222
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.222) = 2.223
  4. Absolute miss = |2.223| = 2.223

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64283, race ID 2884 (538 database).