2002 House · KS-4
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 518 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 55%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.00% · Republican 60.58%
R+23.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 37.000 − 60.583 = -23.583
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-23.583) = 6.583
- Absolute miss = |6.583| = 6.583
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64282, race ID 2881 (538 database).