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2002 House · OK-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 630 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 56%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.17% · Republican 55.62%

R+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 56 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.171 − 55.624 = -13.453
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-13.453) = -1.547
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.547| = 1.547

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64281, race ID 3038 (538 database).