Skip to content

2002 House · OK-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 630 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 63%

R+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.17% · Republican 55.62%

R+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 63 = -28.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.171 − 55.624 = -13.453
  3. Signed miss = -28.00 − (-13.453) = -14.547
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.547| = 14.547

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64278, race ID 3038 (538 database).