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2000 House · CA-49

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.63% · Republican 46.18%

D+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.630 − 46.179 = 3.451
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.451) = -1.451
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.451| = 1.451

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64273, race ID 2348 (538 database).