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2000 House · FL-22

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.86% · Republican 50.14%

R+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.858 − 50.142 = -0.284
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.284) = 7.284
  4. Absolute miss = |7.284| = 7.284

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64272, race ID 2386 (538 database).