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2000 House · OH-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 58%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.61% · Republican 52.97%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 58 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.608 − 52.973 = -8.365
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-8.365) = -9.634
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.634| = 9.634

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64271, race ID 2581 (538 database).