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2000 House · IN-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 41%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.19% · Republican 43.82%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.192 − 43.818 = 10.374
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (10.374) = 3.626
  4. Absolute miss = |3.626| = 3.626

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64267, race ID 2431 (538 database).