2000 House · WA-8
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 58%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.64% · Republican 62.23%
R+26.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 58 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 35.639 − 62.233 = -26.594
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-26.594) = 8.594
- Absolute miss = |8.594| = 8.594
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64264, race ID 2702 (538 database).