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2000 House · WA-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 45.93%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.009 − 45.931 = 4.078
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.078) = 1.922
  4. Absolute miss = |1.922| = 1.922

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64264, race ID 2696 (538 database).