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2000 House · WA-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.55% · Republican 42.65%

D+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.552 − 42.650 = 11.902
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.902) = -4.902
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.902| = 4.902

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64264, race ID 2695 (538 database).