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1998 House · NC-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.43% · Republican 41.56%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.426 − 41.558 = 15.868
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (15.868) = -2.868
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.868| = 2.868

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64260, race ID 2136 (538 database).