1998 House · KS-4
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 56%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.56% · Republican 58.26%
R+19.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 38.562 − 58.260 = -19.698
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-19.698) = 3.698
- Absolute miss = |3.698| = 3.698
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64259, race ID 2006 (538 database).