2006 House · WI-8
St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 43%
even
The certified result
Democrat 50.90% · Republican 48.76%
D+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 50.900 − 48.761 = 2.139
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.139) = -2.139
- Absolute miss = |-2.139| = 2.139
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64257, race ID 4024 (538 database).