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2011 House · NY-26

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2011-05-19 (5 days before the election) · 639 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 38%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.68% · Republican 32.08%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 38 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.680 − 32.083 = 10.597
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.597) = -6.597
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.597| = 6.597

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64254, race ID 1793 (538 database).