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2009 House · NY-23

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2009-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 606 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 6%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.97% · Republican 4.80%

D+39.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 6 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.965 − 4.796 = 39.169
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (39.169) = -9.169
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.169| = 9.169

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64253, race ID 1800 (538 database).