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2006 House · WI-8

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 984 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.90% · Republican 48.76%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.900 − 48.761 = 2.139
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.139) = 3.861
  4. Absolute miss = |3.861| = 3.861

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64247, race ID 4024 (538 database).