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2006 House · WA-8

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,004 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.54% · Republican 51.46%

R+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.540 − 51.460 = -2.920
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-2.920) = 4.920
  4. Absolute miss = |4.920| = 4.920

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64246, race ID 4012 (538 database).