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2006 House · PA-7

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 442 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 43.60%

D+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.356 − 43.602 = 12.754
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (12.754) = -5.754
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.754| = 5.754

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64244, race ID 3927 (538 database).