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2006 House · PA-4

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,008 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 51%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.89% · Republican 48.03%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 51 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.891 − 48.035 = 3.856
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (3.856) = -7.856
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.856| = 7.856

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64244, race ID 3924 (538 database).